GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The Buffalo Sabres have struggled at times this season when they had the lead, often fumbling it away. Against Phoenix, a team fighting for a playoff spot, they seemed to get better while out front, leaving the Coyotes steaming mad. Zemgus Girgensons scored a short-handed goal in the third period and had an assist, and the road-weary Sabres knocked off the Coyotes 3-2 on Thursday night. "Sometimes when we have a lead, we panic a little bit," Sabres coach Ted Nolan said. "Tonight, we still panicked a bit, but not as much and it was good to see." The Sabres had plenty of energy in their third game in four nights, scoring the first goal and rallying from a 2-1 deficit in the third period. Tyler Ennis and Steve Ott scored, and Girgensons put Buffalo ahead with his goal early in the third. Ryan Miller kept the Sabres in it with a stellar first period and made some tough stops after giving up two quick goals in the second, finishing with 38 saves in Buffalos second win in 10 games. "Hes done a tremendous job for us," Girgensons said. Phoenix followed one of its best games of the season with a shaky performance. The Coyotes dominated most of the first period, only to give up the first goal, and then blew a 2-1 lead by repeatedly turning the puck over in the second period. They tried to rally with a late push, but came up short in what they had deemed a must-win game. Antoine Vermette scored his fifth goal in three games to extend his point streak to six games, and David Moss scored his first goal in 17 games for the Coyotes. "Were up 2-1 at the start of the second and do absolutely nothing -- NOTHING as a group," said red-faced Coyotes captain Shane Doan. "We had a chance to put a team away when youre up 2-1 at home, I dont think we got a shot for 12 minutes, its embarrassing. Its embarrassing." Phoenix played perhaps its best game at a critical juncture of the season on Tuesday, kicking off a five-game homestand with a 3-0 victory over the Los Angeles Kings behind Thomas Greiss second shutout in three starts. Coming off a game like that, the Coyotes needed to avoid a slipup against the NHLs worst team. The Sabres began the day with an NHL-low 14 wins and 36 points -- six fewer than anyone else -- and had allowed 31 goals while losing eight of nine. Buffalo also came in as the NHLs lowest-scoring team with 101 goals, which was 23 fewer than the next closest team. The Coyotes had added incentive after losing to Buffalo in overtime on Dec. 23, when a shot by defenceman Mark Pysyk caromed into the pants of Phoenix goalie Mike Smith, who fell back into the net for the deciding goal. Despite being outshot 21-12 in the first period, the Sabres scored first by getting traffic in front of Greiss, leading to Ennis 12th goal of the season on a rebound. The Coyotes quickly snapped out of their funk. Vermette scored his team-leading 20th goal of the season on a power play, one-timing a rebound past Miller. Moss scored 18 seconds later, swiping in a backhander on another rebound. But Buffalo fought right back. Ott tied it in the second period on a power play, punching a rebound under Greiss arm as he dove, the first allowed by Phoenix after 14 straight penalty kills. Girgensons put the Sabres up early in the third period with the Coyotes on the power play, poking the puck away from Coyotes defenceman Keith Yandle and past Greiss in the same motion. Buffalo held on behind some big saves by Miller in the closing minutes, sweeping the season series over Phoenix. "They were playing with a lot of juice and when you keep turning the puck over, it makes it hard on you," Coyotes coach Dave Tippett said. "It made it hard on us and we kept turning the puck over until they won the game." NOTES: Referee Trevor Hanson left late in the second period after a shot by Coyotes D Oliver Ekman-Larsson caromed off the crossbar and hit him in the face. He was back on the ice for the start of the third period. ... The Sabres placed F Drew Stafford on injured reserve and activated F Matt DAgostini from IR. ... Coyotes RW Radim Vrbata played his 400th career game. ... Buffalo D Christian Ehrhoff did not play due to an illness. 00:28ET 31-01-14 Cincinnati Reds Gear . CEO Steve Koonin on Tuesday told the Hawks flagship radio station that he made the decision to discipline Ferry but allowed him to keep his job managing the team. He did not say what the punishment was, but noted that he relied on a law firms three-month investigation of Ferry and him describing Deng as someone who has a little African in him. Stitched Reds Jerseys . In mens doubles, Vancouvers Vasek Pospisil and American Jack Sock reached the quarter-finals with a 7-6 (3), 7-6 (3), 6-4 win over Croatian Mate Pavic and Andre Sa of Brazil. https://www.cheapredsjerseys.us/. Of all the names out there who could realistically be dealt by Wednesdays deadline, Ryan Kesler remains No. 1 on the most desired list. And while were not sure if theyre any closer to a deal, we now have a defined price. Cincinnati Reds Pro Shop .com) - The Carolina Panthers won for the first time in seven games last week, were without Cam Newton due to a car accident this week, but somehow sit atop the much-maligned NFC South. Cheap Reds Jerseys . - Rookie Tesho Akindele scored three goals and Fabian Castillo added two in FC Dallas 5-0 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday night.Each round of the playoffs, I forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This method was 5-3 in the first round and is currently 2-1 in the second round, with the Kings favoured entering their series against Anaheim (Game Seven goes tonight in Anaheim). More on context in a moment. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.9 shots on goal per game and the Montreal Canadiens have allowed 31.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 31.95 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Conference Finals: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Montreal 28.7 31.0 Carey Price .927 15.92 N.Y. Rangers 32.9 29.6 Henrik Lundqvist .922 16.33 Verdict: This series projects to be very closely contested. Through the first two rounds this year, only the two Los Angeles series projected to have a closer differential than the forecasted 0.41 goals between the Rangers and Canadiens, and both of those series were seven-gamers. Montreal has been a subpar puck possession team this year, but it turns out that they have a great goaltender and a dangerous power play, one that was 32% (8-for-25) against Boston. Knock off a few power play goals or give Price a save percentage below the .936 that he posted against the Bruins and it would be easy enough to see Boston in this spot. As for the Rangers, they were a strong puck possession club during the season that eliminated Pittsburgh despite losing the possession game to the Penguins in Round Two. The Rangers also have the benefit of good goaltending, as they rallied from a three-games-to-one series deficit, as Henrik Lundqvist stopped 102 of 105 shots (.971 SV%) in the last three Rangers wins. It would be too simple to suggest that goaltending determines this series, since both Price and Lunqvist are among the best, so there are other factors to consider. Both teams top-scoring forwards havent produced in the postseason. No one on the Rangers has more than Brad Richards nine points in 14 games and Rick Nash has yet to score a goal. Montreals big goal-scorers, Thomas Vanek and Max Pacioretty, combined to score four goals in Game Six and Seven against Boston, after combining for four in the first nine games of the playoffs. The lack of a go-to-scorer for both teams has emphasized the team approach. For Montreal, Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher, Daniel Briere, Dale Weise and Rene Bourque are among those that have risen to the occasion at times in the playoffs, while the Rangers supporting cast of Benoit Pouliot, Derick Brassard and Carl Hagelin has been able to score just enough for the Blueshirts to reachh the Conference Final.dddddddddddd If there is a single non-goaltender with the power to shift the series, it could be Montreals P.K. Subban, the top-scoring defenceman in the playoffs who has been in the middle of just about everything that happens with the Canadiens. If Subban is great, that alone could be enough to overcome the slight statistical disadvantage in this forecast. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 17.64 Los Angeles 31.5 26.9 Jonathan Quick .915 16.78 Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 10.71 Anaheim 30.7 28.8 John Gibson .950 16.56 Verdict: Since there isnt much of a window between the second round ending, Friday night, and the Conference Final round beginning, Saturday at 1:00 pm ET, were going to look at both options in the Western Conference. Chicago hasnt even played their best hockey in the postseason, yet its still been good enough to dispatch St. Louis and Minnesota. Corey Crawford deserves some credit, because his .931 save percentage in this years playoffs is right on track with what he did last year (.932) on the way to the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup. Chicago was a dominant possession team during the regular season, second only to Los Angeles in Fenwick Close, but havent held that same edge in the playoffs. Better opposition, and all that. The same could be said for the Kings, who earned 56.7% of the unblocked 5-on-5 shot attempts during the regular season, but havent held that same territorial dominance in the playoffs. The interesting thing is that, while hes had some strong games in the playoffs -- both this year and historically -- Jonathan Quick hasnt been much better than average this year. Its reasonable enough to forecast the Blackhawks to survive that possible matchup, and not just because we know the Blackhawks will for sure be in the Conference Final. When it comes to breaking down the Chicago-Anaheim series, the model gets busted by Ducks rookie goalie John Gibson. Its one thing to have a goalie that has played a grand total of six games in the NHL as the starter, but his .950 save percentage in those games, stopping 171 of 180 shots, is a completely unsustainable level of play. Thing is, unsustainable levels of play can get a team through a playoff series. Gibson was a wildcard injection into the second round, against Los Angeles, after Frederik Andersen was injured, and gives the Ducks a chance in Game Seven. However, its not remotely reasonable forecast to suggest that the Ducks would be 5.85 goals ahead of the Blackhawks in a head-to-head seven-game series. The Ducks arent as strong a possession team as Los Angeles, or Chicago, and have relied on extraordinary shooting percentage, in addition to their hot goalie. The Blackhawks have been a team of high-percentage finishers too, so the Ducks best chance, should they survive the Battle of Los Angeles, may be for Gibson to keep on keeping on. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. ' ' '